Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#36
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.5#325
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.2% 3.4% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 5.3% 7.9% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 11.9% 17.3% 5.2%
Top 6 Seed 19.0% 26.4% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.8% 71.4% 49.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.0% 52.6% 28.7%
Average Seed 8.1 7.5 9.2
.500 or above 94.7% 97.8% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 98.0% 94.9%
Conference Champion 47.7% 53.7% 40.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 4.7%
First Round59.3% 69.0% 47.3%
Second Round32.8% 40.4% 23.5%
Sweet Sixteen14.2% 18.4% 9.0%
Elite Eight6.2% 8.3% 3.6%
Final Four2.7% 3.6% 1.4%
Championship Game1.1% 1.7% 0.5%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 24 - 35 - 5
Quad 39 - 215 - 7
Quad 45 - 020 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 27   UCLA W 67-66 56%    
  Nov 27, 2020 119   UC Irvine W 72-61 85%    
  Dec 02, 2020 112   Colorado St. W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 04, 2020 112   Colorado St. W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 10, 2020 25   @ Arizona St. L 72-77 31%    
  Dec 18, 2020 54   BYU W 73-69 66%    
  Dec 22, 2020 74   St. Mary's W 66-63 62%    
  Dec 31, 2020 102   @ UNLV W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 02, 2021 102   @ UNLV W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 07, 2021 104   Nevada W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 09, 2021 104   Nevada W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 14, 2021 75   @ Utah St. W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 16, 2021 75   @ Utah St. W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 22, 2021 225   @ Air Force W 77-65 85%    
  Jan 24, 2021 225   @ Air Force W 77-65 84%    
  Jan 28, 2021 169   Wyoming W 73-58 89%    
  Jan 30, 2021 169   Wyoming W 73-58 89%    
  Feb 03, 2021 180   @ New Mexico W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 05, 2021 180   @ New Mexico W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 08, 2021 282   San Jose St. W 85-64 96%    
  Feb 10, 2021 282   San Jose St. W 85-64 96%    
  Feb 18, 2021 150   @ Fresno St. W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 20, 2021 150   @ Fresno St. W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 25, 2021 86   Boise St. W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 27, 2021 86   Boise St. W 74-66 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.4 10.9 12.1 8.6 3.8 47.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 5.9 6.4 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.0 2.5 0.6 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.5 5.6 8.3 10.4 12.2 14.4 14.3 12.9 8.6 3.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.8    3.8 0.0
19-1 99.4% 8.6    8.4 0.2 0.0
18-2 94.2% 12.1    10.7 1.4 0.0
17-3 76.6% 10.9    8.1 2.6 0.1
16-4 51.6% 7.4    4.3 2.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 29.2% 3.6    1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0
14-6 10.5% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.7% 47.7 37.0 9.1 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.8% 100.0% 70.3% 29.7% 2.5 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 8.6% 99.3% 63.2% 36.0% 4.2 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.0%
18-2 12.9% 96.1% 51.0% 45.2% 6.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 92.1%
17-3 14.3% 88.0% 45.5% 42.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 1.7 77.9%
16-4 14.4% 73.4% 36.1% 37.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.5 2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 3.8 58.4%
15-5 12.2% 55.5% 29.3% 26.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.4 37.1%
14-6 10.4% 37.2% 24.4% 12.8% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 17.0%
13-7 8.3% 23.0% 17.4% 5.6% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 6.4 6.8%
12-8 5.6% 13.6% 11.7% 1.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.8 2.2%
11-9 3.5% 10.2% 10.0% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.2 0.3%
10-10 2.6% 4.2% 4.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
9-11 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
8-12 0.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 61.8% 35.2% 26.6% 8.1 2.2 3.0 2.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.9 6.9 8.1 8.8 7.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 38.2 41.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.5 64.3 26.3 8.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 37.3 21.8 23.6 3.6 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 25.0 55.4 18.8 0.9